Miles City, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

012
FXUS65 KBYZ 141221
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
621 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Midweek precipitation may add to elevated water levels on rivers
  and streams along the foothills, although rises due to snowmelt
  will end.

- Widespread precipitation and normal to below normal temperatures
  will continue through Thursday. Additional heavy snowfall (1 to
  2 feet) in the western mountains and around 1 inch of liquid
  precipitation over the western foothills is expected.

- Potential cool and wet system late this weekend/early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday...

Widespread precipitation will continue over the central and
western portions of the region (50-90% chance from Rosebud county
west) through this afternoon before becoming more scattered for
this evening through Thursday (25-50% chance over the plains and
50-60% chance over the mountains and foothills) as the trough
begins to exit the region.

The greatest additional rain is expected over the western
foothills, around 1 inch. However, as the trough moves into the
Dakotas, wrap around precip may make its way into Fallon and
northern Carter counties, leading to a 60% chance of more than 0.5
inch of rain Thursday into Friday morning if the pattern sets up.

Over the mountains, snow continues above 7000 feet. A Winter Storm
Warning remains in effect over the Crazy and Absaroka/Beartooth
mountains, with additional snow accumulations up to 2 feet through
midnight tonight. Over the Pryor and northern Bighorn mountains, a
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect, with an additional 4 to
8 inches expected through Friday morning.

Temperatures today and Thursday will be around 5-10 degrees below
normal, with highs in the 50s to low 60s. Area waterways will
continue to run high as the widespread precip is added in.
However, lower temperatures will keep additional snowmelt from
occuring, so only slight rises on major rivers are expected at
this time.

Winds will be a bit breezy today, with gusts into the 20s mph for
most locations. Then, Thursday will be breezier, with gusts into
the 30s mph for most locations and 40s mph in Sheridan county WY
and along the Dakota border. Archer

Friday through Tuesday...

On Friday, 500 mb low will be located to our east over the
northern Midwest, with eastern MT under northwesterly flow. Some
model solutions bring additional showers to eastern MT from this
northwesterly flow while others keep the forcing to the east of
our area. In accord with these different solutions the NBM has a
40% chance of showers in eastern MT Friday. Elsewhere, we will be
under semi-zonal 500 mb flow with weak disturbances moving
eastward over the area Friday into Friday night. The disturbances
will bring scattered showers to the area (20-80% chance, greatest
in the mountains) but with limited moisture (low-level
northwesterly winds) precipitation amounts will be limited to less
than 0.10 inches.

Saturday into Saturday night, a 500 mb trough will move
southeastward over the west-central US with southwesterly flow
beginning to move over our area. The southwesterly flow will bring
increased moisture aloft, with embedded weak disturbances moving
through the flow. Just ahead of the southwesterly flow, there will
be a brief period of shortwave ridging that can give drier
weather. So, not all of Saturday will be wet, but there will be
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area and with model
timing differences, NBM has a 20-80% probability of precipitation
over south central MT and north central WY Saturday, greatest in
the mountains. Precipitation amounts again will be light at less
than 0.10 inches.

Sunday into Monday, model ensemble solutions largely agree on the
large-scale pattern of a 500 mb low moving from NV to CO or WY.
This would bring periods of showers and weak thunderstorms to the
lower elevations, and snow to the higher terrain. They remain
uncertain with the details, including track and timing of the low,
which in turn brings uncertainty to precipitation amounts and
snow levels. Currently, there is between a 70-95% chance of
precipitation over the area, highest near the mountains and
foothills. The latest NBM gives a 60-90% chance at exceeding a
half an inch of liquid precipitation from Sunday through Monday,
with an inch or more at 30-70%, highest over the south. Snow
levels will drop during this Sunday-Monday period, and will be
anywhere between 5000 and 9000 feet by Monday, from NBM 10th to
90th percentile values. The chance of at least 4 inches of snow is
greater than 50% in the mountains at the higher elevations
(farther above the snow level).

On Tuesday, the general idea is that the 500 mb low and steadier
precipitation will be moving away from our area, but the details
on timing and track remain uncertain as mentioned above. Models
then suggest additional periods of showers under semi-zonal 500
mb flow with weak disturbances moving through the flow, but there
will also be periods of dry weather too in between disturbances.
NBM shows that the chance of precipitation Tuesday is about
50-80%, greatest in the mountains.

Temperatures are most likely to be in the 50s to lower 60s
Friday, warming into the 60s for Saturday, then 50s and 60s Sunday
and Tuesday, and 50s Monday. NBM does show that uncertainty
increases markedly beginning Sunday. The high temperature at
Billings could be anywhere from 48F to 70F on Sunday, 41F to 65F
on Monday, and 51F to 68F on Tuesday, from NBM 10th to 90th
percentile values. STP/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

12z update to add scattered thunderstorms this afternoon-early
evening.

Conditions will mainly be MVFR today from lower ceilings.
Early this morning, steady rain with MVFR visibility will occur
east of KBIL with scattered showers to the west and east of this
area. The precipitation pattern will then transition to steady
rain northwest of KBIL with scattered showers elsewhere by about
15z today. Scattered thunderstorms (30% chance) will be in central
areas, potentially affecting KBIL and KSHR, this afternoon into
early evening (beginning 20z KSHR/21z KBIL today to 02z Thursday).
For tonight, there will be additional scattered showers, but
prevailing ceilings should improve to VFR east of the western
foothills. Mountains will be obscured in clouds and snow. RMS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 044/060 044/062 045/065 046/063 044/052 041/061
    9/T 78/T    44/W    35/T    48/T    98/W    65/W
LVM 049 040/056 038/060 040/063 042/055 039/051 037/060
    9/T 88/T    45/W    66/T    69/T    98/W    56/T
HDN 057 042/060 043/062 043/067 046/066 043/052 038/059
    8/T 78/T    54/W    35/T    48/T    99/W    76/W
MLS 060 045/060 045/061 040/065 045/061 042/051 038/056
    8/W 66/W    43/W    12/W    26/W    88/W    66/W
4BQ 062 045/057 045/058 040/064 045/061 042/050 038/053
    4/T 45/W    43/W    12/W    37/T    99/W    75/W
BHK 065 042/054 039/057 035/062 037/057 037/051 035/053
    4/T 66/W    54/W    11/B    25/W    88/W    75/W
SHR 058 038/058 039/058 039/065 042/065 037/050 034/057
    8/T 58/T    45/W    35/T    49/T    99/W    76/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR
      ZONES 67-68.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR
      ZONE 171.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR
      ZONE 198.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings